← VPC Store Champ - PTM Season
Water FractalTier 2
at VPC Store Champ - PTM Season
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
2-9-0
overall winrate
18.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
24.1%
avg ELO -11.3 per match
expected value
42.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1388
· median 1388
· range 1368–1407
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1263
Q3 1429
1648
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Assassin | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.2% | -19.0 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.2% | -19.0 |
| Wind Tera Diao Chan | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
